Uber just told Wall Street two things at once: brace for a softer quarter, and expect the company to keep pouring billions into a driverless future regardless.
On Wednesday, the ride-hailing and delivery giant issued a third-quarter profit forecast that fell short of analyst expectations, even as it reaffirmed plans to spend more than $10 billion on autonomous vehicles in the years ahead. Investors weren’t thrilled — shares dropped roughly 3-5% in premarket trading.
The Numbers Behind the Miss
Uber guided third-quarter adjusted earnings per share to a range of 84 to 88 cents, missing the 89-cent consensus estimate compiled by LSEG. The company pointed to currency headwinds as a factor, saying foreign exchange would shave about a percentage point off reported gross bookings growth compared with the same period last year — a reversal after FX had actually boosted growth over the previous four quarters.
Gross bookings for the current quarter are projected between $58.25 billion and $60.25 billion, which lands roughly in line with what analysts had penciled in.
That forecast comes on the heels of a stronger-than-expected second quarter. Uber’s bookings for the period hit $58.02 billion, beating estimates, while adjusted core earnings also topped forecasts. Revenue climbed 12% to $14.19 billion — just shy of expectations, partly due to an accounting change in the UK that dented reported growth without changing the underlying business. CEO Dara Khosrowshahi credited the strength to broad demand across regions and services, including a boost from FIFA World Cup-related travel, with more than 8 million tourists using Uber in host cities during the tournament.
Why Uber Is Still Betting Big on Robotaxis
The headline number here isn’t the earnings miss — it’s the $10 billion. Uber laid out plans to funnel that sum into autonomous vehicles over the coming years, mostly through equity stakes in self-driving partners and balance-sheet support for fleet operations and vehicle commitments. The company didn’t attach a specific timeline to the spending.
The scale of that commitment matters because Uber’s capital allocation has become one of the biggest questions hanging over the stock. Just last month, the company announced a $14.8 billion deal to acquire Delivery Hero, a move it plans to fund through existing cash and debt rather than new equity. Layer a multibillion-dollar robotaxi push on top of that, and investors are understandably watching the balance sheet closely.
Analysts largely see the number as reasonable given the scale of the opportunity. Cambiar Investors’ Adam Ballantyne said the figure matches his own expectations, noting Uber would likely need billions more over the next four to five years to help its autonomous-driving partners scale.
The Waymo Question
Complicating the robotaxi narrative: reports have suggested Alphabet’s Waymo may be reconsidering parts of its partnership with Uber, including exclusive arrangements in Austin and Atlanta. On the earnings call, Khosrowshahi pushed back on the idea that the alliance was falling apart, saying he expects the two companies to keep operating together in those cities while Uber simultaneously builds relationships with other autonomous vehicle developers — a hedge that suggests Uber isn’t banking its robotaxi strategy on any single partner.
What It Means for Investors
Put together, the picture is one of a company willing to trade near-term earnings polish for a longer bet on autonomous mobility. A soft quarterly forecast paired with a double-digit-billion capital commitment is the kind of story that splits a room: growth investors may see a company positioning early for the next decade of ride-hailing, while more conservative shareholders will want to see discipline given how much is now stacked on Uber’s balance sheet between the Delivery Hero deal and the AV spending.
Either way, robotaxis have clearly moved from a side experiment to the central storyline in how Uber explains its future to Wall Street.
